November 5, 2012

New York turning red? So sayeth Aaron Kreel who overheard a union guy or something....

I in no way stand by the accuracy of the prediction of my friend Aaron Kreel, but hey dude has been on the bad streets of New York and he made a prediction, I found it interesting... Read with caution.

I'm going to make a long shot prediction: New York state goes to Romney. I know it sounds nuts, but here's why I think it's possible...

I've been working in a trade union environment, in NYC, for months. There has been more open anti-Obama sentiment than I would have expected. In fact one admitted life-long, self-proclaimed Union Democrat told me today that he was considering a Romney vote because he didn't see a future in Obama. Yes, that's anecdotal. I think it's evidence of waning support for Obama, though.

Now, the entire city of New York is distracted by hurricane clean up and more significantly: gas lines. Are liberals or conservatives more likely to go out tomorrow in spite of the cost to themselves (in discomfort and gasoline) to vote? First of all, I believe the conservatives are far more energized about their candidate right now. Second, the Democrat base is far more likely to excuse themselves from voting because it's too inconvenient for them.

I'm not saying it's right or it's wrong, fair or unfair. Just watch what the real impact of the hurricane is on the election. The media is predicting it will hurt Romney. I'm not sure that I agree.

Also, be aware that NY and NJ are improvising solutions to voting issues (no power, displaced voters, etc.) as we speak. This includes ideas like VOTE BY FAX, and vote by voucher. Needless to say, the potential for abuse (and confusion) is high.

Tomorrow night will be interesting...

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