July 28, 2011

Run to the hills!

In case you missed it, hurricane season (June 1 to November 30 ) is under way.
I'm sure once the MSM's focus stops being on the debt ceiling talks, this will be the next shiny object to focus on. Or shark attacks.
The prediction for this year:
[ "The conditions expected this year have historically produced some active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Therefore, the 2011 season could see activity comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:
  • 12-18 Named Storms,
  • 6-10 Hurricanes
  • 3-6 Major Hurricanes
  • An ACE range of 105%-200% of the 1981-2010 median." ]
"Could see?"
Hmm...12-18 NAMED storms. Wow, that sounds so....technical. This scientific process was started during the height if satellite tracking - 1950, so you know its based on constant,blaket-like surveillance of the oceans. As comic book store guy on the Simpsons would say: "Worst. Stat. Ever." I bet it makes algore feel vindicated, tho.

The "ACE range.” Now THIS sounds technical! Percentages and everything!
Anyone? Anyone?
To make a long story short, it stands for Accumulated Cyclonic Activity; basically the power of all the storms for any particular season. The activity is then listed at above or below “normal.”
Stay with me, this is going to be a fun scientific stat…
In the years 1950-1994 – BFA (Before AlGore) there were a grand total of 13 seasons listed as “above normal.”
In the years 1995-2010 – AAG (After AlGore) there were a total of 11 seasons listed as “above normal.”
Now the true believer may look at that stat and say “See! It’s getting worse!”
Yeah, those people are crazy lemmings. And the "scientists" that push this on us as "science" rather than a short-sighted statistical variation, should turn in their Scientific Community membership cards.
The only thing they fully understand seems to be that there are liars, damn liars and statistics.
Since my scientific career is currently in a lull, I'll be keeping count.

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