An apology to my readers for my analysis being so late. I truly had a nutty day today and after work I had an eye exam. I had no idea how hard it was to type with your eyes dilated. Things are still fuzzy, but when the 'hey where is the analysis' emails are pouring in, it is time to type if you can see or not.
First of all congratulations to the Democrats. They understand a few very simple things about the American psyche, and they played them well.
One, Americans have a very short memory. They have forgotten the horror of 9-11. The news media counted every American lost in the war on terror. At some point, people forgot that we were attacked and decided the price we were paying was too high. I'm not going to argue the merits of the war, we have done that to death and I still think I am right. My position used to be in the majority, now it is in the minority. Much of America has decided the price we have paid is too high, it is that simple.
Two, if you say something often enough people will start to believe it after a while. Democrats everywhere did not come out with any real plan, they ran against a troubled Congress and a troubled President. The message was simply change. And everyone has heard the adage change is good.
Please no one share some silly talking points from any website. No one reads position papers. You are what you say in your advertising and in the press. All we really heard was rhetoric and attacks from the vast majority of Democrats.
When it comes down to it though this election was lost in '04 when the President stopped being as aggressive in Iraq in the run-up to his re-election bid. He took a less aggressive stance and stuck stubbornly to his position. That stubborn optimism ultimately cost his party the majority.
The biggest loser in Wisconsin was obviously Kathleen Falk. The promised blue wave came, her candidacy was so weak she could not even ride the strongest Democratic surge in her lifetime. The lie filled ad run by Xoff's group had to hurt her. In fact, it likely cost her the election.
That ad earned Bill Christopherson a defamation lawsuit and I'd bet you a dollar to a donut his lawyers told him to stop blogging.
What we really have now is an example of how to beat the majority party; obstruct, complain, impugn, insult, repeat.
I wonder if the Democrats would like the same strategy if it turned around on them.
Sorry, folks it will never happen.
Conservatives know the best way to win when in the minority is to let liberals be liberals. There is nothing progressive in their approach, what we will get is a steady diet of larger government and higher taxes. When the people get tired of that, conservatives will regain power.
I have encountered several people today who were completely freaked out and thought their taxes would skyrocket immediately. If the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire the hardest hit will be families with children.
That will not be allowed to happen. Remember, the election for President started today. The last thing the Democrats want to do is tick off the soccer moms by passing along a $500 per kid tax increase. Oh fees and sneaky stuff will go up, but the Democrats will pick on businesses and "the rich" as long as they have their eyes on 1600 Pennsylvania.
That being said the Democrats will likely suck enough money out of the economy to slow the economy, but they have Bush to blame for that so all is good in leftie land.
The Democrats will hold their majorities and take the White House in 2008 if, and only if, they watch the taxes and the spending.
A few thoughts in no random order:
- Cathy Stepp is a class act. We spent a few minutes chatting last night, her kids are lucky to have her back home.
- Will Bryan Kennedy become the next Jeff Thomas? (I think Folkbum still thinks Kennedy is going to win)
- Speaking of Jeff Thomas, hey Jeff is 8 times a charm?
- I hope Steve Herr runs again.
- Three words to be heard in the future: Senator Paul Ryan.
- I don't care how many times they count, Allen will lose his senate race.
- I don't care how many times they count, Al Gore did not win Florida.
- I don't care how many times they count, John Kerry did not win Ohio.
- I don't care how many times they count, Kathleen Falk lost.
- If we get another Supreme Court nominee before '08 the most important member of the Senate may be Senator Herb Kohl.
- Joe Lieberman is a class act.
- I kind of miss Justin Sowa.
- Kurt Vlach ran Tim Daley's campaign. If Daley runs again, I hope he uses Vlach again.
- People in Racine did not understand the health care referendum they approved. The Journal Times did roughly 4,982 editorials on the gay marriage issue, and 1 or 2 on the health care referendum. The vote on that meant nothing. If the people really knew what that meant it would not have gotten over 40%.
- John Lehman can thank the Journal Times, in part, for his election. They are a lefty paper, everyone knows that, but the sheer advocacy they put toward Lehman was truly astounding. Lehman put out very negative campaign materials, McReynolds pointed out Lehman's voting record yet somehow the paper gave Lehman a complete pass while demonizing Bill McReynold's campaign as being negative.
- I got to know Bill McReynolds during this campaign, he truly is a class act.
- The Journal Times completely ignored the evidence that Racine's Sheriff Carlson was using county resources in his election bid, and several other significant stories broken here relating to the election. The Racine paper has pretty well ignored the vast majority of Doyle's scandals. If they wish to be advocates fine, I just wish they would admit their bias. Go ahead, look at their editorials and tell me when the last time the paper took a conservative stance on anything... It amazes me how completely that paper ignores a significant part of the community.
That's enough for now. There should be enough material here to make people's heads spin.
Hey, did Casper win anything?